Our goal is to have completed discussion around these first round seed suggestions by the end of February, 2025.

Please add your ideas early and come back often to comment on/discuss ideas from others.

1 matching seed ideas
Example abstracted from one of our PREEMPT Phase 1 Institute - Improving our ability to predict outbreaks of Spruce budworms in northeast american forestsNina Fefferman
Description Spruce budworm outbreaks devastate fir and spruce forests in the northern U.S. and southern Canada. The last big outbreak in the east started in the 1970s, and a new incipient outbreak is being suppressed currently in s.e. Canada. Spruce budworms follow a general pattern of outbreaks every 40-ish years, and there are data available on outbreak-vs. -not for about 300 years. There are multiple mechanistic and phenomenological models of outbreaks of this species, but none that are effective predictors of outbreaks. One proposed model predicts alternate stable states for budworm populations (outbreak & low numbers), but they might be phase shifts caused by changed environmental conditions. Shifts in inter-outbreak intervals could be affected by nationwide declines in bird populations (they eat caterpillars), climate change, and human actions (wood demand & suppression). We could delve into the problems of budworm outbreak modeling to see if we can come up with an effective predictive model Deliverables a predictive model with code implementation; a published academic journal manuscript; a whitepaper targeting governmental and industry managers and policy makers to help with sustainable forestry practices Policy improved predictions may be able to improve active management strategies for both public and private forests Disciplines or Expertise Required for this Working Group
Forestry
Ecology
Entomology
Modeling
EconomistHave you thought about including an economist who knows about the lumber industry? That might be important to potential management strategies.
Comments:
Maybe you also need a statistician - while the proposed idea talks about causal models, it might be useful to analyze the data to discover subtle patterns that might have been missed before, especially if you can combine novel datasets or put old ones together in new ways...N.H.F.1
   Report for Moderation


Links  Spruce Budworm  Benefit-cost analysis of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) control: Incorporating mark Files